Projects are still getting away. The developers who are making them work are not waiting for a perfect market. They are re-running the feasibility, tightening the design, staging the release, partnering properly with the builder and, where the site allows it, using a softer patch in prices to buy land on better terms.
NAB's November Housing Monitor, released on 11 November, shows combined capital city dwelling prices are 8.1 per cent below their March peak, while house building material costs were 3.9 per cent higher over the year. That is the setting, not the story. The story is how to make the numbers work anyway.
The demand is still there
The Reserve Bank's November Statement on Monetary Policy includes feedback from its business liaison program. Contacts note that demand fundamentals – strong population growth, low unemployment and ongoing housing shortages in many markets – are supportive. Residential builders in most markets report solid activity, supported by earlier sales, and this is expected to maintain momentum in construction activity into early 2027. Contacts in Sydney and Melbourne report around six months of work in the pipeline, with longer pipelines for those operating elsewhere.
NAB also notes that dwelling approvals have been resilient to the broader shift in the housing market.
In other words, people still need housing, and there is work on the ground. The task is to shape the next project so it can be built and sold on today's terms.
How developers are making feasibility work
- Re-run the feasibility on today's numbers. Use current comparable sales and current days on market, not the figures from when the site was bought. A project reshaped to today's evidence is the one that can still start.
- Use a softer market to buy well. With prices off their March peak, this is a moment to be selective on land: pay a price that leaves room for the build and a sensible margin, rather than stretching to win every site.
- Design for the cost and the buyer. Efficiency in the plan – fewer wasted square metres, a tighter mix, a product that suits the buyers who are actually active – does more for feasibility than hoping prices catch up. The RBA's contacts say viable apartment projects are mainly concentrated in more premium segments of the market. Make sure the product suits that demand.
- Stage where the site allows it. Smaller releases let you test the market, recycle capital and avoid committing the whole build before the sales evidence is in.
- Partner with the builder, not just contract them. A fixed price only helps if the builder can deliver it. Early, honest conversations on escalation, program and margin make for a more durable start, and a better outcome for both sides.
- Time the start. Not every approved project needs to commence tomorrow. Holding a site until the feasibility is right can be the decision that protects the project, and the one that lets you start cleanly when it is.
The housing shortage hasn't gone away, and the RBA's contacts still describe the underlying demand as supportive. The developers getting projects away are the ones treating feasibility as a living piece of work: updated, staged, designed and timed so the project can be built and sold on today's terms.
Sources
- NAB, NAB Housing Monitor – November 2026, 11 November 2026: https://www.nab.com.au/news/housing/nab-housing-monitor-november-2026
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2026, Box C: Insights From Liaison, 3 November 2026: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2026/nov/box-c-insights-from-liaison.html